The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is released on the first Friday of most months at 14:30 South African time. It is one of the most volatile half-hours of the trading month, and one of the most misunderstood.
What NFP actually measures
NFP counts the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy, excluding farm workers, private household employees and non-profit staff. Markets also watch the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, which often matter more for the Fed’s inflation outlook than the headline number.
How the markets typically react
- Strong report: dollar up, gold down, US index futures mixed (good economy versus fewer rate cuts)
- Weak report: dollar down, gold up, bond yields fall
- Mixed report: a whipsaw in both directions in the first few minutes, often ending where it started
Five rules for trading NFP
- Reduce position size: spreads widen and slippage increases at the release.
- Never place market orders in the first 60 seconds.
- Wait for the first 15-minute candle to close, then trade the break of its high or low.
- Check revisions to previous months. They can flip the market’s interpretation.
- If you hold positions into the number, make sure your stop-loss is far enough away to survive the initial spike.
New to news trading? Practise your NFP plan on a demo account for at least three releases before risking real money.